New York City Economy - 2016 Outlook NYC
Currently Full Employment, Low Interest Rates, Low Inflation But Possible International Shocks
We took a look into the crystal ball over the holiday break to see what may lie ahead for the NYC economy in the coming year. We studied the stats and facts put out by many of the national data producers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the AIE. What follows is a brief summary of some of the statistics we gathered on the global, national and New York City economy including unemployment statistics by borough for 2015.
U.S. & NYC Economy Near / At Full Employment
Currently Queens and Manhattan are doing the best with respect to employment, with unemployment rates below 5%, which economists consider to be full employment as the 5% unemployed are viewed as normal ‘friction’ in the economy, accounting for people coming into, leaving and changing jobs within the labor force.
In 2009 - 2010, during the first two years of the Great Recession, the nation’s unemployment rate hit 9.4%, while the unemployment rate for New York City hit 10.4%. The employment picture for the nation and the five boroughs of New York City has slowly but steadily improved since then, with unemployment trending lower, reaching full employment this year at 5% for the nation and 4.8% for New York City this fall.
Employment Impact / Relationship to Inflation
Employment affects inflation, as when everyone is fully employed, recruiting firms bid up the price of labor and workers feel secure enough to spend aggressively, bidding up the price of goods. The Federal Reserve attempts to reign in inflation - because it creates economic instability - by raising interest rates which increases the cost of capital needed to expand operations or make large purchases more expensive. On December 16, 2015, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to begin to get ahead of potentially inflationary issues that may lie ahead. We'll look into a few of these later in this report.
Economists in one of the banking reports I received believe that there is still slack in the labor market that is not reflected in the numbers as many people have part-time jobs, while they would like full time jobs. Also the labor force participation rate fell during the Great Recession and it became more difficult to find work. Now with a full employment economy it is believed that some of those folks who gave up looking will try to re-enter the workforce. An example of the decline in participation rate might be a spouse who helped supplement household income but couldn't find the right work, and now starts looking again.
Click here to continue reading our report about the New York City NYC Economy Outlook 2016 which delves into full employment impact on inflation, interest rates, consumer debt levels, oil & commodity prices, domestic and international currencies & economic growth, the financial markets and how all of this may impact the different sectors of the Queens & New York City economy.
New York Boat Show @ Javits Center
Full Steam Ahead For Boat & Yacht Dealers & Manufacturers
For the price of a small apartment in Manhattan you can buy yourself a floating power palace with about the same amount of space, and water views on all sides.
It was my first venture into the New York Boat Show on Sunday at the Jacob Javits Center in Midtown West. There were about 400 boats and yachts on display [364 was the unoffical count] for those looking to buy, trade or just look at the state of the art in boating technology and comfort.
Again unofficially - using one of the dealer's gate count numbers - it seems attendance was up a bit this year versus last year. They surmised that the lower gas prices, the better economy and apparently a few folks were looking to replace what had been damaged or that they'd lost to Hurricane Sandy. And so it was ... show on.
Later this week I'll post a photo slide show of the event and take you onto a few of the boats and yachts so you can see what owning or riding on one of these floating palaces would look like. Ship Ahoy.
Real Estate Loans - Manhattan Mortgage Market Condition
Expo Highlights Opportunities, Risks & Other Considerations
May 28, 2014 / Manhattan / NYC Real Estate NYC / Gotham Buzz.
I attended the 2014 NYC Finance Expo at the Roosevelt Hotel on May 14th. The expo was well attended by Manhattan real estate professionals and financiers of Manhattan real estate including banks and other lenders.
The organizers had three or more seminars running simultaneously throughout the morning, with most sessions running between 20 minutes and an hour. About every 15 minutes a new session started, so there were plenty of ways to spend one's time productively.
The topics of the seminars covered a cross section of interests of those in the Manhattan real estate financial industry, from social marketing to real estate finance to real estate planning. I sat through a couple of sessions where I listened to Manhattan real estate and financial executives talk about where we are in the current cycle in the Manhattan real estate market, with an eye toward Manhattan real esate prices and valuations from a lender's point of view.
Billionaire businessman John Catsimatidis is shown in the photo at right at the NYC Finance Expo in Manhattan.
Click here to read the rest of our story about NYC real estate mortgage market conditions & the NYC Finance Expo.
LIC Real Estate: New Face of a Changing Borough
LIC Real Estate Development Continues - Just Across From Midtown
October 1, 2013 / NYC Real Estate / Gotham Buzz NYC.
I, like many in the borough, have been watching in near amazement at the rapid pace of real estate development in Long Island City. On September 18th of 2013, I attended the Grand Opening of 4545 Center Blvd, the fifth of the six TF Cornerstone buildings to go up along the Long Island City waterfront.
As you will see from the photos in the slide show at the end of the story, the apartments are beautiful. The new high rise is an airy, modern building with amenities, and apartments that have breathtaking views of the Manhattan skyline and the Queensboro Bridge. I saw a studio and corner two-bedroom apartment, which rent for about $2,300 and $5,500 per month respectively – so it’s not only the views that are breathtaking, but the rents as well. Five of the six TF Cornerstone buildings along Center Blvd in LIC are rentals, and only the condominiums in The View [the only building TF Cornerstone named] were for sale.
Click here for a story about apts for sale / apartments for rent near Midtown Manhattan NYC, including a bit of the history of TF Cornerstone, Rockrose Real Estate and real estate development in the LIC neighborhood of Queens.
How The Other Half Lives
September 23, 2013 / Long Island City Neighborhood / NYC Real Estate / Gotham Buzz NYC _ DA.
I attended a reception hosted by TF Cornerstone in late September to celebrate the official opening of their fifth property. The building had been completed earlier this year and the first tenants had moved in sometime in May. I understand they've rented about 70% of the units, so they've been moving briskly.
I visited a couple of the units for rent, including a studio that started at about $2,300 per month and a two bedroom corner that likely rented for something like $5,000 per month [give or take several hundred]. To those of us who live in Queens, these are expensive units, but to those who live in Manhattan - given the views and amenities - these are good value. Like the headline says : )
NY Federal Reserve In Queens
Current Business Economic Conditions In Queens 2011
March 11, 2011 / Flushing Neighborhood / Queens Business / Gotham Buzz NYC.
I attended a presentation by the New York Federal Reserve president and CEO William C. Dudley. His purpose was to supplement the research done at the Federal New York Reserve with visits into ‘the field’ to see what’s going on economically. A visit following his speech by a vice president of his staff to Crystal Window & Door Systems was a part of that effort [use the search function to find related stories].
Dudley first talked about the role of the Federal Reserve, which is to manage the nation’s money supply. The Fed pursues a ‘dual mandate’ which is to purse the highest level of employment consistent with price stability. Dudley talked about the importance of the NY Federal Reserve in overseeing Wall Street and in helping the Federal Reserve execute monetary policy. Then he turned his remarks to the current state of the U.S., NYC and Queens economy.
Click here to read more about the Federal Reserve discussion about the economy and business climate - NYC .
NYC Small Business Loans - Credit In NYC
Business Loans In NYC - Banking In New York City NYS
Updated Spring 2014 / First reported Spring 2011 / NYC Banks & Loans NYC / Gotham Buzz NYC.
I had occasion to attend a NYC Credit Fair at the Bulova Corporate Center in Jackson Heights. The credit fair was sponsored by the New York City Council, the New York Bankers Association [NYBA], the New York Business Development Corporation [NYBDC] and NYC Small Business Services.
And while I missed most of the credit fair, the literature I picked up on my visit was excellent. The fair occurred the morning of January 26, 2011 which was the morning of one of the numerous snowstorms we had this winter and it likely negatively impacted attendance.
This report contains information about how to obtain financial and technical assistance to: 1) make your business creditworthy, 2) make a successful loan application, and 3) find alternative sources of credit / loans for small businesses in Queens.
Click here to learn more about how to obtain small business loans in NYC.
NYC Real Estate Commercial & Home Loans and Mortgages
Chinese American Real Estate Association Talks Loans & Mortgages in NYC
Updated Summer 2016 / Original Report May 22, 2010 / Mortgages & Loans NYC / Gotham Buzz NYC.
There was a Real Estate Expo event hosted by the Chinese American Real Estate Association [CAREA] in Flushing. This expo is an evolution of the Home Buyers Expo, which was an event they had hosted last year with a private sponsor. The Home Buyer Expo had focused on issues such as how to find a house, how to take the house into contract and how to close on the house. Last year there were ten vendors at the expo offering financial, real estate and legal services.
Real Estate Lending & Home Buying In Manhattan & NYC
We visited the expo in search of information about the state of mortgage lending in Manhattan & Queens. Given the Asians seem to be America's financiers, we thought this expo might be a good place to research this question.
In 2010 the CAREA event scope was expanded and it attracted about 40 - 50 vendors. The expo focus changed from buying a home, to buying and managing a home. Hence vendors included tax services, energy services, remodeling services as well as vendors offering financial, real estate and legal services.
Click here to read our full report about real estate finance and mortgage lending in NYC.
Finance - Banks & Loans In Manhattan Related Info
Click this link for promotions, discounts and coupons in Manhattan.
Site Search Tips. 1) For best results, when typing in more than one word, use quotation marks - eg "Midtown Neighborhood". 2) Also try either singular or plural words when searching for a specific item such as "gym" or "gyms".
Click this link to the Gotham Buzz front page.
Click the log in link below to create an ID and post an opinion. Or send this story to a friend by filling in the appropriate box below.
Click the log in link below to create an ID and post an opinion.
Or send this story to a friend by filling in the appropriate box below.
NYC Related Links
Click for New Years Parties & Restaurants NYC
Click for Manhattan Farmers Markets NYC