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The NYC Mayoral Race Heats Up 2021

#1 Andrew Yang Slipping in Polls, #2 Eric Adams Holds / Moves up on Yang, Already #3 or #4 - Scott Stringer Now Accused of Sexual Harassment, Plus a Bit of News on the Four Candidates Trailing the Leaders & the Mysterious Impact of Ranked Choice Voting

nyc violent crime shootings gun arrests murders nyc manhattan queens brooklyn bronx staten island gun arrests shootings murders nyc crime stats 2020May 3, 2021 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC Corona Virus / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Weather. It's going to be a fairly rainy week, starting late afternoon / early Monday evening ending Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks to be cloudy, but not a lot of rain until Tuesday evening, which will last through Wednesday. Thursday looks to be winner [sunny & dry] and then Friday afternoon less rain returns. Temperature lows will be in the 50's and temperature highs in the 60's on Monday, Thursday and Friday, and in the 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

NYC Mayoral Primary is Tuesday, June 22nd

The NYC Mayoral Primary is only seven weeks away. So it's time for voters to begin doing their homework on the candidates in order to make an informed choice. As of the most recent poll, there are at best, about seven viable candidates for the Democratic primary. The viable candidates include Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales and Kathryn Garcia.

While there are another five candidates who qualified for the race, they do not appear to have much popular support nor competitive financial backing. So those five, who include Art Chang, Aaron Foldenauer, Paperboy Love Prince, Joycelyn Taylor and Isaac Wright, Jr., have just received all the mention I intend to give them prior to the election.

 

Brief NYC Mayoral Candidate Look - See at Most Competitive Candidates including Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales and Kathryn Garcia

With More Depth to Come Prior to the Primary / Decision Day

I. Andrew Yang has been polling as the leading candidate for the longest time, but his support appears to be fading as voters become more familiar with him as well as the other candidates. What likely drove Yang's early poll numbers was his high name recognition at the beginning of the race. Yang had gained name recognition by virtue of his failed run for president in 2020.

It's worth noting that Yang has not held publicly elected office, and prior to his run for president, was best known for a non-profit venture that gained some national attention from the Obama Administration. In a February 10, 2021 Politico report, Yang was the top choice of 28% of respondents in a poll conducted by Core Decision Analytics which is a lobbying firm. According to an April 29, 2021 report in Politico, a recent simulation poll by StudentsFirstNY, showed Yang's support at 26%.

Yang is generally perceived as a left leaning progressive, who sparks creative discussions about what ifs. However, given his limited track record professionally and operationally, it's difficult to tell what a Yang Administration would look like in reality, since he's not held publicly elected office and his claim to fame was only a six million non-profit venture. NYC operates on about a $90 billion budget each year and it's important to have someone familiar with the operations of the city prior to assuming office. Donald Trump comes to mind here, in that he had no prior experience that qualified him for the presidency. In Andrew Yang's case, his experience vis a vis NYC government, is miniscule at best.

EDITOR'S NOTE. Please note that the poll numbers cited in this report come from two different sources whose polling methods likely differed, and which may have some sort of poltical agenda, even though both poll reports were published in Politico, an online political web magazine.

 

Brooklyn Borough President - Eric Adams

II. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams has held the second place in polls, and his support seems to be solidifying and possibly growing. While Yang had about 84% name recognition going into the race, the next best known contestants - Eric Adams and Scott Stringer - came in at about 60% and 66% name recognition, respectively. Adams was supported by 17% in the February 2021 poll, and inched up to 20% in the StudentsFirstNY simulation poll in April 2021.

Eric Adams has been the Brooklyn Borough President since 2013. Prior to that he was an NYS State Senator for four terms. And prior to that, Adams spent two decades as first a transit police officer and then as a member of the NYPD. While seeming to start from a conservative vantage point early in life, Adams appears to have moved steadily toward a moderate, even progressive stance, favoring gay marriage, calling for more dialogue about race and policing as early as 2004, advocating for the first two years of public college to be free and wanting developers to do more for the communities in which they operate.

But there are critical areas where it's unclear as to what an Adams Mayoralty may look like as he has taken in more real estate development cash than any other candidate. Also, the charter schools companies, that make a lot of money by privatizing the best part of the public school system, leaving the rest behind in the hands of the government and unions, while they rake in the cash and the accolades have also contributed a fair amount of cash to the Adams campaign. The private charter schools essentially ravage the public school system in a manner not unlike how insurance companies used to recruit the healthy, leaving the sick in the hands of the public or on their own.

Adams is perceived to be a moderate - but that needs a qualifier - in that Adams appears to be a moderate per the Democratic party in NYC.

 


The NYC Mayoral Race Heats Up 2021

#1 Andrew Yang Slipping in Polls, #2 Eric Adams Holds / Moves up on Yang, Already #3 or #4 - Scott Stringer Now Accused of Sexual Harassment, Plus a Bit of News on the Four Candidates Trailing the Leaders & the Mysterious Impact of Ranked Choice Voting

May 3, 2021 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC Corona Virus / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC. Continued.

 

Scott Stringer - NYC Comptroller

III. NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer has been the third place candidate for NYC Mayor. In the February 2021 poll, Stringer had support from 13% of the electorate, which slipped to 12% in April [bearing in mind these are from different polls]. The April poll was conducted prior to the April 28th announcement by former campaign aide Jean Kim who accused Stringer of sexual harassment, which he has denied. Following the allegations, the grocers union and the Working Families Party withdrew their support, as did between a half dozen and dozen government officials / local pols.

Stringer has been the NYC Comptroller since 2014. My second reporting about him occurred when he used the Comptroller's Office to pursue the false, trumped up allegations of corruption regarding the Queens Library shortly after he took office. Prior to that he was the Manhattan Borough President for two terms, where he seemed to publicly disparage new real estate developments, before he subsequently signed off on them. There were several such Manhattan real estate developments worth noting, but for purposes of this brief, Stringer signed off on a Bloomberg Administration plan to rezone East Midtown, after disparaging it. The plan was later defeated by opposition from NYC Councilmember Daniel Garodnick and later redone by Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer. Garodnick said the Stringer plan lacked transparency for such a large, long lasting plan with significant implications for the area. Prior to his post as Manhattan Borough President, Stringer was an Assemblyman for six terms.

Stringer is perceived as a progressive. He is an outspoken advocate of traditional Democratic causes like gay rights, women's rights, minority rights and climate change, although it's worth mentioning that most - if not all Democratic mayoral contenders - hold the similar views on these issues. On more local issues like housing and transit, Stringer seems to favor the projects put forth by wealthy real developers, who in part, finance his campaigns.

 

The Next Tier of Candidates - Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales & Kathryn Garcia

In the most recent poll, these candidates all received between 6% and 10% of the vote. None of them has held any publicly elected office, and many of them have spent scant [and even no] time [McGuire] working in NYC or NYS government.

 

IV. Maya Wiley was a former legal counsel in the de Blasio Administration for about four years [unconfirmed 2014 - 2018]. Her other experiences seem to be oriented toward the legal profession, including working in the Civil Division of the U.S. Attorney Office, a job as a professor and also an MSNBC Legal Analyst. She received about 10% of the vote in the April simulated poll. She does not appear to have held any publicly elected office. She lost her father to the sea in a boating accident, where she and her brother were also on board.

Wiley is considered to be a progressive.

 

V. Raymond McGuire received support from about 6% of voters in the April poll. McGuire has the largest single negative vote, with 32% stating they have a negative opinion of him. McGuire is a former Citibanker who has spent his life working in finance. Generally speaking, business executives don't make good government officials because they can't keep their eyes / hands off the cash box, which is why they're successful businessmen. Businesses are supposed to make a profit, while government is supposed to look out for the people. McGuire does not appear to have held any publicly elected office and has no experience in NYC or NYS government.

McGuire has a well financed campaign, likely because the rich and powerful, would love to have one of their own occupying City Hall. Kind of like having billionaire businessman Donald Trump in the White House, which net the rich a huge swath of tax breaks.

 

VI. Shaun Donovan is the former Commissioner for the NYC Housing Preservation and Development during the Bloomberg years [2004 - 2008], when NYC rent stabilized housing began disappearing quickly, and NYC homelessness proliferated. He was then appointed U.S. Secretary for Housing and Urban Development during the first term of the Obama Administration, and was subsequently appointed to be the Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget during the second Obama term. Donovan received the support of 6% of the voters in the April 2021 poll. He does not appear to have held any publicly elected office.

 

VIII. Dianne Morales worked for the NYC Department of Education under Bloomberg appointee Joel Klein at a time when the Bloomberg Administration was partitioning schools and appeared to be privatizing the best parts of the broken up entities, leaving the public sector and the unions to manage the rest. Since then she's worked for a few non-profits, apparently one as the head of it. One of the non profits she worked for has a real estate development arm, that I have been told has been having issues with some of the local people it is supposed to serve. Morales received 5% of the April 2021 simulated poll. She also has not held a publicly elected office.

 

VII. Kathryn Garcia received about 4% of the vote in the April 2021 poll. She appears to have an operationally relevant resume for the office, but like the others in the second tier, has not held publicly elected office. She held a position in the NYC Department of Environmental Protection during the Bloomberg years, when great progress was made to transform a large segment of garbage collection into recycling. She was appointed to become the Department of Sanitation Commissioner after de Blasio took office in 2014 and held that job until he appointed her to oversee issues related to lead paint in NYCHA in 2018. She became an interim NYCA Chairperson for a brief time in 2019, and subsequently headed NYC's CoVid emergency response unit during the CoVid pandemic, to address the needs of folks in dire straits.

 

I hope to provide more information on many of the candidates, especially the leading ones, in the weeks to come, to help round out or even challenge what you may already know or read about them. The idea here is to give you added information you may not already have, so that you can make up your own mind about who may do the best job to lead NYC in 2022.

It's one of the most important jobs affecting our lives on a daily basis.








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