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NYC Curve Appears to be Flattening, NYS Numbers are Still Rising

Hospitalizations, ICU Patients, Intubations & Discharges

April 2, 2020 / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS CoVid 19 / NYC Neighborhoods / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Well, there seems to be some good news, and Governor Cuomo has started hinting at it in his daily CoVid press conferences. A week ago, the Governor was talking about NYS hitting the apex of the curve in 21 days, which is in late April. This week the Governor started hinting that we may hit the top of the curve within the week. The Mayor, meanwhile has been saying that next week could be the start of the apex / wave.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysMy assessment differs from both the Governor's and the Mayor's. And while it's based on information provided by the Governor, I'm drawing a different, more optimistic conclusion. Part of that may be that I haven't been able to talk to anyone from the Governor's office who knows precisely what's in / not in the numbers the Governor has been providing. And it's also worth noting that both the Governor and the Mayor don't have the luxury of planning for the optimistic scenario.

 

Assumptions for the Analysis in this Report - Beware the Hype & Distortions of Anecdotal Reporting

Assuming the numbers hold and New Yorkers' behavior holds, NYC may have already hit its apex of the CoVid pandemic. Note that those are big assumptions, but they're assumptions based on current numbers and behaviors.

As I am sure you can appreciate, that's good news, as some NYC hospitals had reached their capacity in terms of beds and / or Intensive Care Unit beds with / without respirators. But while maxing out the capacity at some of the eleven hospitals that are run by the NYC Health & Hospital System - like Elmhurst Hospital in Queens and possibly Jacobi Hospital in the Bronx - it is not true for the privately run hospitals that represent a significant portion of the medical infrastructure of NYC. One exception may be Mount Sinai in Astoria, Queens which today was reporting that they're handling a lot of CoVid patients.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysOn Monday afternoon, March 30th, I spoke very unofficially to professionals from both Mount Sinai and also at Memorial Sloan Kettering - both in Manhattan - who told me at that time, that the operations at both of these hospitals were pretty much functioning somewhat normally.

So I think it's important for people to bear in mind, a shortage or over-capacity in one hospital, doesn't mean there's a shortage system-wide. The flip side of that coin is that we may have more capacity and supplies than is needed - but it might not be available in the places where it's most needed.


NYC Curve Appears to be Flattening, NYS Numbers are Still Rising

Hospitalizations, ICU Patients, Intubations & Discharges

April 2, 2020 / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS CoVid 19 / NYC Neighborhoods / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC. Continued.

 

The Gossips on Network TV News Seem to Hype the Crisis for Ratings

So if you listen to the gossips on the alarmist network TV media, you might think things are horrible, and that we're all going to die. Network TV seemed to mimic social media, providing anecdotal accounts that weren't contextualized, enabling one to believe that the system was breaking. The folks on TV news broadcast reports featuring a few stressed out people, and then amplified them into a publicly perceived reality.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysBut their alarmist reporting does not seem to match the reality, and in fact I found a number of positive indications in the data provided by Governor Cuomo, that seem to show that the CoVid situation here in NYC and NYS has largely stabilized ... albeit at a near or even above [normal] capacity level.

Fox News seems to do this sort of reality distortion nearly daily - especially when it comes to social issues and politics. The Washington Post caught them in their dishonest, deceptive reporting of CoVid and I urge you to share this video with your family and friends, so that the Australian born billionaire's [Rupert Murdoch] propaganda machine loses some of its Jedi mind trick power on their gullible audience, who seem to enjoy living in the Australian born and bred billionaire's Fox / NY Post / WSJ bubble of mind-bending, reality distortions.

 

Murdoch's Fox Fake News Irresponsible Reporting

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysCLICK here to view the video showing Fox Fake News spinning its web of fake news, and then pivoting and pretending that they never said, what they had just said.

And CLICK here to learn more about how Rupert Murdoch's Fox Fake News, NY Post and WSJ propaganda machine create, what seems a universe of alternative facts that divide this nation, so that the Australian born billionaire may plunder the public purse.

But I digress. So why do I say things are improving - that we seems to have been successful in flattening the curve?

 

Governor Cuomo's Data Shows Positive Trends

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nys I've been tracking and analyzing the numbers provided by Governor Cuomo regarding the testing and spread of the Corona Virus. Initially I had tuned into the number of tested people, versus the number of those who tested positive. What happened there is that the numbers surged as the number of tests conducted surged. What nobody knew - and likely still don't - is what percent of the increased cases were attributable to the increase in testing.

Eventually I shifted focus to the raw numbers of those who tested positively for CoVid for NYS, NYC and the rest of NY State, as NYS continued to climb, while NYC seemed to level off - or reach a flattening of the curve.

 

Independent Reporting from the Front Line - Not Alarmist, Ratings-Driven Reporting as Seen on Lemming TV

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysI expected this as you can likely tell from some of my prior reporting, as when I went out to cover things, I found empty subways, closed restaurants, bars and stores, and people walking around in masks and with gloves. This showed me that the denizens of our fair city were taking the issue seriously and in pretty short order had adjusted their behaviors. Mind you - there were many who did not - but they were a very small anecdoatal minority. You can see photos of this in my prior reports in the CoVid section - see link at start of this report.

Some of the violators of the recommended guidelines turned out to be folks in the media, government and in our military, as you can see from some of the included photos. Many officials, media and law enforcement didn't seem to follow their own guidance.

 

A Rolling Spread of the Virus - First NYC, then Long Island & then ...?

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysAnyhow, so the total NYS chart shows the numbers continuing to grow for the state, but that obscures the fact that the curve for NYC appears to have flattened.

What seems to be happening now, and time should bear this out, is that the non-NYC state numbers are now driving the new CoVid cases. A couple of weeks ago, NYC comprised over 62% of the total CoVid cases. Today NYC comprises about 56% of the cases, and as of Governor Cuomo's report today, half the reported newly reported CoVid cases came from parts of the state outside of NYC. So yes, the CoVid virus is spreading, but it appears to have slowed in NYC.

That's good news for NYC, and while the rest of NYS is still under siege so-to-speak, in the long haul that's also good news for them too, because it demonstrates that the social distancing and washing hands is working. I think they also need to step up calls for people to raise the bar on their overall home, car and business cleanliness routines, because that's not just an important part of stemming the spread, but it's is ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY for us to return to work. What's the sense of washing your hands all the time, if all of the surfaces that you touch around you, get infected?

In my mind that is one of the great failures of the Trump Administration's CDC's handling of this crisis. But it's by no means the only one. See our first report which summarizes some of the failures prior to and during the early stages of the pandemic.

 

Positive Tests for NYC Residents Seem to Stabilize - the Governor's Comments Hint at the Change

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysSo NYS continues to rise, but NYC seems to have stabilized. NYS should stabilize as soon as the rest of the state gets it together and increases their compliance with the guidelines continually repeated almost everywhere [please start including cleaning in the discussion - as it will also give folks something to do while home].

The next few contributors to my optimism are also based on data provided by Governor Cuomo in his daily press briefings. I have tried to reach Cuomo's press office for comment, but they've yet to get back to me after morethan two days of requests. They must be too busy managing the alarmist Network TV media.

Be advised that the data shown in the graphs I had in small part to manipulate, as Governor Cuomo began SCRAMBLING the data provided in his charts, possibly to avoid enabling someone like me to announce the good news, before they were ready to announce it themselves.

 

Danger of NYC Passing the Curve Apex - Hubris Resurgence?

Note that there's a danger in announcing success sooner, rather than later, as people will likely go back out there, get infected, and there could be a CoVid resurgence. That's going to be a risk whether they announce it sooner or later, so they should step up efforts to urge everyone to clean and scrub any surface they touch, while folks are still homebound. That's where CoVid is and disinfecting / washing is how you get rid of it.

Originally Governor Cuomo provided the total hospitalizations, but later switched to showing the daily NEW in hospitalizations. I think what happened here is the DISCHARGES started shooting up and the NET hospitalizations actually started going down - see chart. Since the Governor's press office hasn't responded to my inquiries, I'm not 100% sure of this, but given where things were headed before the Governor started scrambling the data, I feel at the very least that it's directionally correct.

I've been sitting on this story for a week and the new data coming in seems to affirm my theories.

 

Intensive Care Unit Patients & Discharges

I then started analyzing the new daily admissions into the Intensive Care Units [ICU], where the new admits keeps rising, as you can see from the graph. That early spike is likely a timing of reporting issue, as I noticed the Governor's data changed periodically, so they were likely correcting numbers on the fly, for which I give them credit. It wasn't long again, before the Governor shifted from reporting the total ICU admits, to reporting the new daily admits to ICU.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysHere again, I suspect it's because those on the respirators for a long while, who were very old and very immune system compromised, started dying. So I started subtracting the daily dead from the daily ICU admits, which showed that ICU capacity was being freed up, not being taken up.

I'm less sure of the above conclusion given what government officials are saying to the public. And I did the same with the daily intubations, which are shown rising each day, but when you start subtracting the dead from these figures, it shows a very different picture.

PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM SEEKING CLARIFICATION FROM GOVERNOR'S OFFICE - so the last four charts, where I subtract new deaths from new admissions to the ICU and Intubations needs clarification as to whether the new admits are a net number.

 

Intubations & Deaths & Respirators

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysI'm sending this to the Governor's office for comment and will update you if / when I hear back from them. But don't hold your breath or you too will have to be put on a respirator.

The bottom line is they need to start talking about how they're going to get people back to work. I think sanitation / cleanliness is probably THE MOST IMPORTANT component to doing that. Yes, social distance and yes wash your hands, but none of that matters if you keep touching infected surfaces.

I'll have more coming within the next few days about how we can get back to work. Stay tuned.








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