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The CoVid Curve Appears to be Flattening

Growth in Daily Hospitalizations & ICU Patients Appears to Slow

March 31, 2020 / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS / NYC Neighborhoods / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS CoVid 19 / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Please note I tried to contact the Governor's Office for comment on this and have not yet heard back from them. I know they're busy, and we're not from the MainStream Media.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysNearly three weeks ago, Governor Cuomo issued an order for social distancing, by initially limiting social gatherings to fifty people or less. Mayor de Blasio supported the move that same day. As such most of the cultural venues in New York City suspended normal operations and events pending further notification or some future date. That was nearly three weeks ago.

That action was subsequently followed by further actions, limiting social gatherings to ten people and eventually just immediate households. On March 15, 2020 Mayor de Blasio issued an order asking bars and restaurants to close their doors except for deliveries / take out. That was more than two weeks ago.

A week ago while I was out photographing the empty, eerie NYC landscape, I noticed somewhat casually that somewhere between 10% - 25% of retail outlets were still open in Manhattan / Queens. Just a few days ago, while making another sweep through a couple of neighborhoods, the percent of those open had dropped to ghost town levels of 10% and less.

The bad news is that there's been a near stop to 'non-essential' life here and that there's an economic reckoning most folks are facing tomorrow on April 1st as bills come due.

The good news is that I've been tracking the numbers provided by Governor Cuomo and the curve does appear to already be flattening. The Governor has hinted at this by noting that the hospitalization rate had gone from doubling every 2 - 3 days at the outset a few weeks ago, to doubling every six days as of about a day ago.

But the good news goes beyond that. A couple of days ago, the Governor changed what numbers he was releasing to the public.


The CoVid Curve Appears to be Flattening

Growth in Daily Hospitalizations & ICU Patients Appears to Slow

March 31, 2020 / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS / NYC Neighborhoods / Corona Virus in NYC & NYS CoVid 19 / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC. Continued.

 

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysOn Thursday, March 26th the Governor started including the number of people being discharged after arriving for CoVid treatment [I don't know whether the discharged numbers include deaths].

On Friday March 27, he started including the daily change / uptick in the number of ICU [Intensive Care Units] required for CoVid, as well as showing the uptick / changes in the number of people Discharged. The ICU numbers were jumping. But he dropped highlighting the changes for the ICU numbers the very next day, while keeping the daily changes for the discharged. Around this time he noted that some of the reporting wasn't reported daily, which means some days could be either up or down more than what was real - due to when the figures were reported - versus when someone actually entered into one of the reported figures. At this time he also introduced a chart showing the total number of CoVid patients hospitalized.

On Saturday, March 28th Governor Cuomo dropped the change number of the CoVid ICU patients, and instead started showing a chart depicting the Daily ICU admissions. The difference being that people were coming out of intensive care, thus reducing or muting the total number of patients in the Intensive Care Unit vis a vis new cases which are likely to continue for a while.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysOn Sunday, March 29, Governor Cuomo changed showing us total hospitalizations, to showing us new hospitalizations, in the same manner as he'd begun depicting the numbers for the patients in the Intensive Care Unit.

On Sunday the Governor discontinued showing the 'Tested' chart.

It was at this time that the Governor introduced another new chart - that of Daily Intubations. I believe this depicts those in the Intensive Care Unit who needed respirators.

And Governor Cuomo also showed the number of people being discharged, which is a fast growing number that is reducing the estimates for what is needed from the healthcare infrastructure to properly service the 'surge' or 'apex'.

On Monday, March 30, 2020 Governor Cuomo discontinued showing the 'Tested Positives' chart.

On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 Governor Cuomo introduced a new chart for Discharges transitioning it from a cumulative chart to a daily chart.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysThe problem with the Governor's reporting changes, is that the new charts obscure to us, the press and thus the public, exactly where we are in this crisis.

I believe we are close to moving beyond the apex and the following explains why.

The Hospitalizations, based on Governor Cuomo's numbers between March 23rd and March 30th [the last time he showed this on a chart], had risen from 2635 to 9517, which is almost a fourfold rise in eight days. BUT the increases, on a percentage basis fell from 22% - 40%, down to 12% - 16% the last three days. And I don't have access to new information beginning March 31st. Likewise the raw numbers increases had peaked on Thursday, March 26th at an increase of 1522, while since then it's averaged about 1,000 increase per day.

My question here, is whether the discharged patients, are beginning to reduce the total hospitalizations. The total discharged patients based on the last chart shown, was 4,206 on Monday, and the net change was up to 771 in the chart shown on Tuesday, bringing the total to 4977 or nearly 5,000.

The same trend appears to materialize in the Intensive Care Unit data. In the first four days the numbers spiked between 17% - 45%, while in the last three days of the data set they ranged from 4% - 16%. Ditto with the raw numbers which ranged from 571 - 1522 in the first four days, and then seemed to settle in at between 847 - 1175 the last three days.

corona virus nyc covid 19 nyc nysThe question here is what are the current total numbers, as the new Hospitalizations and the patients in ICU numbers, will be offset by a reduction coming from the discharges and I'm not sure where / how deaths factor into any of these numbers.

In addition to being able to scrape together data that suggests we're beginning to see a flattening of the curve based on the Hospitalizations and ICU numbers provided by Governor Cuomo, I've also been paying attention anecdotally.

What I mean by that is that - unlike the wealthy boobcasters you see on TV - I actually ride the subway, and walk around town, and talk to people without a camera on them. What I've witnessed first hand, is people responding to the social distancing message and the wash your hands warnings. And while it didn't begin immediately after the call for it, the lag time and compliance seemed to be swift, which is why I believe we as a community, may have been successful in mitigating the scourge vis a vis the doomsday scenarios.

MORE COMING SOON - to include: Talks with HC professionals at Memorial Sloan, Elmhurts and Mount Sinai show skewed impact. Signs of success in Teaneck, NJ and also Washington State with social distancing. Failures of Trump Administration CDC, government officials at all levels, and the dumbass TV Networks to emphasize cleanliness as a key component of the solution. The Alarmist media hypes the fear instead of doing their job and informing people in a contextualized manner. The TV Networks seem to behave more like a bunch of gossips than like real journalists. And the problem with successful social distancing is that people might quickly start 'non-complying' and thus igniting a resurgence as the threat abates. Hotspots in GA & NJ & WA. Rolling outbreaks and curves.









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