Weekend Wondering NYC

NYS Eviction Moratorium Extension, is Unemployment Rate 10% or 20% & Other News

August 7, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC CoVid 19 Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Rent Moratorium Extension

Well this is good news for far more people than for who it will be bad news. Governor Cuomo has extended the eviction moratorium in NYS for another month [technically until September 4, 2020], and possibly longer, as he seeks to give those who are rent challenged in the midst of this pandemic, an opportunity to turn things around or find other housing.

Mayor de Blasio had simultaneously stepped in to help those facing eviction, telling New Yorkers to call 311 for help from an attorney funded by NYC. There are reportedly 14,000 NYC evictions pending with the City Marshall.

Nationally, the Republicans can't seem to agree on a follow on the terms of the next stimulus bill, which would include extending the eviction moratorium nationally. So it seems - like the handling of the Corona Virus itself - the Governors of each state will have to make their own rent moratorium decisions.

Many NYC Restaurateurs are also Rent Challenged

An August 3, 2020 report in Eater New York informs us that the NYC Hospitality Alliance did a survey of 471 bars / restaurants and found that 83% weren't able to make the full rent, and that included a whopping 37% weren't able to pay any rent. The silver lining in the report was that for 30% of them, their landlords didn't require full rent, and in many cases giving them a temporary 50% off price. The curbside / street dining program implemented by the Mayor seems to be helping, as I see a fair amount of business being done daily, in spite of the weather.

Total Unemployed and the Unemployment Rates

In another Trump first, GDP broke all historic records in the second quarter, sinking 9.5% [at an annual rate of 33%], beating George W. Bush's record in the fourth quarter of 2008, during the financial meltdown.

Jobless claims continued to come in at over a million plus this week [1.18 million], continuing to set records for the longest string of million plus unemploymenbt claims since the end of March / beginning of April of this year, when the pandemic began impacting the economy. The silver lining in this news is that it is the lowest number of new unemployment claims, since mid March.

On June 15th I pointed to the discrepancy between the unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [around 12% - 13%] and the headlines / news reports of some 30 million plus unemployment claims, which would put the unemployment rate at closer to 19%. An August 6, 2020 report by CNBC did the best job of clearing up why there's such a huge discrepancy between the reported unemployment claims of 32 million which translates into an unemployment rate of 20%, and the lower figure that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting of about 10 - 12%. The CNBC report stated the following,

"... The four-week moving average, which smooths volatility in the numbers, fell by 413,250 to 16.6 million. But the damage to the labor remains deep and this was the 20th consecutive week that claims have run above 1 million. The total of those claiming benefits, which lags the current data by two weeks, rose to 32.1 million as of July 18, an increase of 1.3 million from the previous week... "

The ADP payroll report was up 167,000 jobs in July, way below the 4.3 million gains made in June.

• CLICK here for a report on the Economic Impact of CoVid on NYC and NYS in August 2020.

Weekend Wondering NYC

NYS Eviction Moratorium Extension, is Unemployment Rate 10% or 20% & Other News

August 7, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC CoVid 19 Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC. Continued.

Economic Look Ahead - July Consumer Sentiment & Debt Down

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment gauge fell back to 73, down 6 points versus June and tied with May for a six year low. The resurgence of the Corona Virus in the southern and western states likely led to the lower expectations.

Given all of the layoffs planned in the Fall, following the expiration of the $3 trillion in stimulus spending, my optimism is very restrained. The hospitality, retail, restaurants and travel businesses have all been hit really hard and most don't expect a return to what was once normal for at least a year or better. And Trump and the Republicans are still wrangling over yet another stimulus bill, after already spending $3 trillion this spring.

Consumer credit card debt was down a bit, as people paid down cards and didn't use them as much.

Isaias NYC Power Outages Update

Con Ed Power is still out for about 116,000 customers as of Thursday night - of which none were in Manhattan, over 10,000 apiece in both Queens and on Staten Island, a significantly lesser amount in both Bronx and Brooklyn [low thousands apiece], and the bulk of the ongoing outages being located in Westchester County.

MTA Reduced Service Weekdays and Weekends August 10 - 28

Subway service on the 4/5/6 lines will provide reduced service for Manhattan and Brooklyn beginning next Monday, August 10, 2020 thru Friday, August 28th. The MTA is updating the switches at the 14th and Union Square Station, so they will run far fewer trains and less often. Service from Brooklyn through Grand Central will be affected. See www.mta.info for details. I hear that the weekday work begins at 9.30 pm, so plan accordingly.

NYC Public Schools Plans for Reopening

The plan for NYC is going to be a blended program with a mix of staggered classroom schedules to effect social distancing, class 'bubbles' meaning groups will be contained to minimize CoVid spread should there be an outbreak and coupled with online learning to augment classroom instruction. Cleaning protocols will also be in place. We'll post more as we learn more, but so far it seems an intelligent plan / approach given the situation. Teachers and children who live in households with people with underlying health conditions are going to have to think long and hard about safety / possibly sitting this year out?

Most parents want their kids to return to school (a survery showed over 70%), while anecdotally teachers tell me they are concerned about their safety - especially with respect to CoVid protocol compliance by special ed / younger children.

There will be Two 911 Memorial Services - Online & In Person

There will be two 911 celebrations - one live at the nearby firehouse and the other via the web. Both start just after 8.40 am.

Hang in there. I suspect it will get a bit worse before it gets better, but it will get better. Have a nice weekend.