Election 2020: When Will it be Over?

The Presidential Polls Were Mostly Right - The Race was Not Too Tight - the Donald Shows no Grace so the End is not Yet in Sight - Progressives & Moderates Need Learn how to Cooperate - Not Fight, Write?

November 9, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / U.S. Politics / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

This past Saturday I went into Manhattan following the announcement that Joe Biden had won the presidency, wresting it away from a very handsy, clutching Donald Trump. I had seen and heard of partying in the city that afternoon, as folks celebrated the end of the Trump presidency.

But when I arrived in the evening, it seems things had calmed down, and it was a mostly low key Saturday evening, at least on the Upper West Side and north Midtown. More people were out than I had seen in a while, and many folks seemed somewhat cheerful, but since the pandemic began, I've yet to see any sort of real frothiness.

In the photo at right I met a couple out on election night in front of Rockefeller Center. She's from Italy and he's from Philadephia ... Story?

The Presidential Polls Were Mostly Correct - Biden Won & He Won Most of the Swing States They Predicted He Would

Following the election, as early results came in, many news outlets proclaimed that the pollsters got it wrong. But over the weekend I checked the Real Clear Poll of Polls and found that mostly what they had predicted, came true, especially when you factor in the margin of error.

Biden won the presidency, winning a popular vote of over 75 million, to Trump's 71 million. And Biden won the swing states the polls forecast he would, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine. Trump won Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas - also in line with the poll of polls forecasts. Only Georgia didn't end up as the polls forecast it would and I'm going to call that the Stacey Abrams effect.

• CLICK here to read the rest of our report on the 2020 Election Results including the Presidential race, the Senate race and Congress.

Election 2020: When Will it be Over?

The Presidential Polls Were Mostly Right - The Race was Not Too Tight - the Donald Shows no Grace so the End is not Yet in Sight - Progressives & Moderates Need Learn how to Cooperate - Not Fight, Write?

November 9, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / U.S. Politics / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC. Continued.

Only Georgia Doesn't End as Polls Predict - The Stacey Abrams Effect?

In 2018 Stacy Abrams narrowly lost her bid for Governor, by 1.4% or 55,000 votes, in what seemed a sort of rigged election. Brian Kemp, her opponent, was the Secretary of State overseeing the election. According to a March 1, 2020 report in the Atlanta Journal Constitution,

" ... A report from the Democratic-led U.S. House Oversight Committee on Wednesday attacked Kemp's handling of voter registration purges, poll closures, conflicts of interest and an unfounded accusation that his opponents were trying to hack a voter database just before Election Day in 2018. At the time, Kemp, a Republican, was overseeing elections as secretary of state at the same time he was running for governor..."

Stacey didn't lie down and roll over. She got back up and focused her energy on correcting what she saw as an injustice. And so, today, Governor Brian Kemp who calls himself a 'Trump Republican' can take a bit of credit for the Trump loss - in Georgia anyway.

The photo at right shows retailers in Midtown Manhattan boarding up their windows as a cautionary measure on election night. Mayor de Blasio thought the efforts weren't necessary - which turned out to be true - but he also acknowledged retailers' right to do so and that he understood their rationale.

Record High Turnout & Biden Wins by Nearly 6,000,000 Votes

It appears that voter turnout reached a record high of somewhere between 66% - 72% of the population. Voter turnout was 59% in 2016. And I checked Wikipedia which showed a chart going back to the beginning of the republic, with increasing turnout as time went on. Part of that growth in turnout as a percentage of the population is attributable to African Americans and women winning the right to vote.

As of today, it appears Biden is leading Trump in the popular vote with 75.7 million votes versus Trump's 71.1 million votes - so Biden is winning by nearly 5 million votes [update 11/19/20 - it's now nearly 6 million votes as Biden won 79.5 vs Trump 73.6 million votes]. As of today, Biden is also leading Trump in electoral votes with 290 electoral college votes versus Trump's 214 electoral college votes, with 34 votes remaining to be decided [update 11/19/20 - Biden 306 vs Trump 232, but Georgia is doing a recount for its 16 electoral votes, which were awarded to Biden based on the original count].

Of the 34 remaining votes, Biden is favored to win Georgia [leading by 11,000], while Trump is favored to win Alaska [leading by 55,000] and North Carolina [leading by 76,000].

In the photo at right, you can see a small portion of a sizeable contingent of the NYPD, standing guard outside one of his lordship's palaces. Wonder why?

Election Fraud or a Fraudulent Outgoing Cry Baby President?

The Donald has filed a number of lawsuits, most of which reportedly appear to be baseless.

This seems not unlike similar election fraud claims made by the Donald in 2016, when he won, but didn't like that he only won the electoral college - not the popular vote. In 2017 after becoming president, the Donald initiated an investigation into election fraud. The investigation fizzled / disappeared when nothing was found.

Some Blame the Progressive Democrats for the Dashed Democratic Expectations in Election Results

But Pelosi Keeps House Majority in Spite of Gerrymandered Districts, While Schumer's Senate Efforts Fall Very Short ... Again

Everyone seems to be hyped up and amped up these days, which was one of the hallmark characteristics of the Trump era. So while the results were still being tabulated, some pols and pundits opportunistically took pot shots at the progressive democrats for what they perceived as the underperforming elections results.

In the House, the votes are still being counted, but it looks like the Democrats are going to keep their majority. The only question is by how much. So Pelosi seems to have done her job, because the congressional districts are reportedly heavily gerrymandered in the Republicans' favor.

But Chuck Schumer appears to have failed pretty miserably in shepherding the senate to a majority. The Democrats' senate hopes could possibly be saved by the Stacey Abrams Effect - as Georgia has two senate seats heading to a runoff, which if won by the Democrats would provide them with control.

In the photo above right, stands Lincoln Center, in all of its calm, exquisite architectural and design beauty. It's a reminder that we live in a modern age, that we inhabit one of the world's leading cultural centers and that there is still much for which we are thankful.

Senate Democrats Significantly Underperform Expectations - Either the Polls Were Way off or Schumer Played a Weak Game

In 2018 Democrats lost seats a couple of seats in the Senate, but they also had more seats to defend that year, which helps explain why. But that same year the Democrats swept the House in what appeared a landslide, in spite of many gerrymandered districts.

This year it seems the Democrats underperformed in the Senate again, and especially because they had far fewer seats to defend. There were numerous vulnerable Republican Senators - but the Democrats failed to pick up even many of the most vulnerable.

The graphic at right shows how badly some democratic senate candidates fared vis a vis Biden.

Let's see how many senate seats the Democrats were forecast to win and fell short. There was Maine against Susan Collins, North Carolina against Thom Tillis, and Iowa against Joni Ernst - all of these were forecast to go Democratic as flips - but failed. The Democrats did flip Arizona against McSally, and Colorado against Cory Gardner, while the Republicans flipped Alabama, ousting Doug Jones who had won only a couple of years ago, in a deep red Alabama against Roy Moore, who was accused in an underage sex scandal.

But the Democrats failed to pick up senate seats in Montana where they had an ex-Governor [Bullock] challenging an incumbent [Daines]. And North Carolina no longer looks promising, so winning the Senate [to 50 / 50 where the Vice President casts the deciding vote] is now entirely dependent on Georgia, where it's uncertain whether the Stacey Abrams Effect can win the day, with the presidential contest in the rearview mirror.

This appears to be a horrible result, as the Republicans had 23 seats to defend, while the Democrats only had 12 open seats. Chuck Schumer is reportedly a champion fundraiser, but he seems an uninspiring Senate spokesperson [sounds like an undertaker]. And Schumer appears to lack the necessary talent in strategy and tactics, as Mitch McConnell has continually outmaneuvered Schumer since Schumer became the Senate Minority Leader four years ago in January 2017.

State Legislatures - Not Much Movement

As for the state legislatures, in 2020 there was little movement. So why are some Democrats blaming the progressives? It seems it's not because of the facts. But rather because those Democrats playing the 'blame game' may be spinning the news narratives in pursuit their own opportunistic agendas.