Things To Do This MLK Weekend NYC & News Update
News Updates - Guesstimating the End of the Omicron Surge [Graphs],
Weather. The temperature highs will be in the 40's on Friday, dropping to the low 20's on Saturday, and then rising to the low 30's on Saturday and back to the 40's on Monday. The temperature lows will be around 20 degrees Friday, falling to 10 degrees on Saturday, and then rising to 30 degrees on Sunday and Monday. There's a 100% chance of some precipitation on Sunday night / Monday morning, but forecasters are having difficulty estimating how much at this time because the system is still forming. And it's unclear whether it will be rain or snow. But it's going to be something, but hitting us sometime between 9 pm and 10 am on a holiday weekend. The humidity drops from 50% Friday, to 30% Saturday, rising to 80% by Sunday night, dropping back to 60% by Monday. The winds are 15 - 20 mph Friday, dropping to about 10 mph Saturday, rising to 25 - 30 mph by Sunday night and then falling back to 15 - 20 mph on Monday.
Expect Some Omicron Related Cancellations in the Short Term - Like the Toy Fair 2022 & More Broadway Shows
It is worth noting that the International American Toy Fair at the Javits Center, scheduled for February 19th - 22nd, 2022 has been cancelled. Reportedly, some of the larger manufacturers pulled out like Hasbro, and some of the larger buyers like WalMart, continue to have business travel bans. As you will see below, this surge isn't expected to last as long as the first two, as vaccinations and increasing herd immunity begin to impede the devastation - but not the disruption.
Broadway shows played to about 60% of capacity, which was rumored to be one of the lowest attendance seasons on record. In our December 27, 2021 report [scroll down] we highlighted many of the Broadway shows that were taking a brief hiatus or closing either short term or for good because of the rapid spread of Omicron. That trend has continued in 2022, with more shows deciding to go on hiatus due either to actor or staffing sick leaves, or lower than desired attendance - most of which appears Omicron related.
For example 'To Kill a Mockingbird' decided to go on hiatus until June, but they were not alone. 'The Girl from the North Country' is also going on hiatus and will reopen in the Spring. And some of the new shows that were to open in January / this Winter have delayed their openings, pending the CoVid surge hiatus. Nonetheless, as they say on Broadway - The Show Must Go On. Hence the Broadway League said that this time around, the whole of Broadway would not be closing, although it's likely that from time to time individual shows may go on hiatus for staffing health and safety reasons. The Broadway League also extended its CoVid saftey protocols which include vaccinations for all those eligible as well as masks.
CLICK here to read the rest of the report about things to do this weekend in NYC January 2022.
South Africa vs NYS - Omicron Surge Graphs - Where We Are?
Most of the Things To Do this weekend you can find below in our MLK Weekend report. If we find more events of interest, we'll post them here.
But that said, even though Omicron may have peaked here, it is likely to continue raging on in some fashion through January. This probable assessment is based on what we saw in the South African CoVid chart, where the Omicron variant first swept through, in late November 2021.
See chart at right, which shows the South Africa Omicron surge beginning around November 30th, cresting mid December and where it is on January 13, 2022. See the chart below which shows the Omicron surge in NYS, where it appears we're peaking, but using the South African chart as a guide, we have about a month to go before things level off - but not go away. The viral threat will remain viable so long as a significant portion of the populace refuse to get vaccinated.
The negative influential impact, of the half of the daily national newspaper and TV coverage controlled by Australian born billionaire Rupert Murdoch [Fox News, NY Post, WSJ], has not been exposed to the American public enough to wake folks up to the mass manipulation that seems his hallmark and has given him defacto control over both Australia and Britain through the government officials and political parties he appears to effectively control.
Murdoch appears to have been effective in turning American's attention to the disinformation coming from the millions and billions using social media, while somehow avoiding this same scrutiny himself.
The non-Murdoch mass media and government officials should be sure to include Murdoch's mass media brands like the NY Post, WSJ and especially Fox News in all of these conversations, as they also seem reckless, and far more effective in spewing convincing disinformation.
Because of this ongoing near term viral threat, the two remaining weekends in January and likely the first couple in February are also likely to be fairly subdued, as event sponsors, and many attendees curtail or limit their activities. Likely starting sometime in mid to late February and almost certainly in March, we expect things to come back.
In the chart at right is the NYS CoVid new cases chart, showing that we appear to have hit a peak in about the same time as happened in South Africa. If the parallels hold true, then about a month from now we will still continue to have CoVid Omicron around, but at vastly reduced levels.
Long CoVid Impact on Organs - Not Good
It should be noted that ongoing evaluation of Omicron indicates that it is less dangerous than the Delta variant, but the unvaccinated continue to fill the hospitals and ICU's because of the rapidity of the spread of Omicron. Also, it should be noted that the Omicron virus has been shown to remain in people's vital organs even after they have recovered, sometimes wreaking continued trouble for months on end. According to a December 26, 2021 Forbes report a study found that,
" ... The scientists said results from autopsies on 44 patients who died following coronavirus infections showed that although the "highest burden" is in the airways and lung, the virus can "disseminate early during infection and infect cells throughout the entire body,” including widely in the brain, as well as in ocular tissue, muscles, skin, peripheral nerves, and tissues in the cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, endocrine and lymphatic systems..."
Short Term Omicron CoVid Impact on Supply Chain via Labor Outages
On January 3, 2022 we did a report on how much of the supply chain shortages were perception versus reality. Since then Murdoch's Disney / ABC did a report on inflation and - like Murdoch's other manipulative mass media - showed empty store shelves. We also saw empty shelves in other, non-Murdoch TV reports, but continue to believe based on my travels, interactions with grocers and industry expert reports - that those photos don't reflect reality, but TV hype. Ask yourself the same question as you peruse your local grocery store. The TV newspeople appear to hype the weather because it's good for ratings, so why not hype everything else to keep viewers' attention and get those ratings up? TV ratings generate TV revenue, even if they're misleading the public with hyped up, hysterical reports about everything.
This is excepting for semiconductors and related gear. In every report I have scoured through, industry professionals say that there continue to be disruptions in the supply chain, but not scarcities of product. This means product is available, but not necessarily where you want it to be, when you want it.
The disruptions now arise mostly from labor shortages due to the Omicron surge. This has hit some of the food production areas like meat products, and there continues to be a shortage of warehouse workers and truck drivers to transport product from one location to another. As the omicron surge falls, and the stimulus payments dry up, workers are likely to become available again, to fill these openings. Most forecasters predict the resumption of some sort of new normalcy in the next six months.
This assumes no new CoVid variant to wreak havoc again. But that said, we have far more tools in the box, and some level of herd immunity has already been achieved. As a nation we are now about 62.8% vaccinated with 75% with at least one dose, and at the NYS state level 73% vaccinated with 86% having received at least one dose, and in NYC 74% vaccinated with 83% having received at least one dose. See graph at right for NYC vaccination rates of one dose and fully vaccinated per the NYC government website.
Airline Flight Cancellations
There were thousands of flights cancelled over the holiday season due to staffing shortages caused by Omicron sick outs. Although not scientific - as people who work at airlines must also do the same things we all do like travel to and from work, shop for groceries and pick up the kids - don't these airline staffing shortages due to CoVid kind of challenge the notion that flying is super safe?
We'll have more of this sort of catch up on Monday / Tuesday. In the meantime have a nice MLK weekend and there are still a number of things to do this weekend as noted below.