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1657

Economic Snapshot NYC & US

In spite of Non-Vaxers’ Negative Impact on the Recovery, Generally the Economy Appear to be Steadily Improving

September 21, 2021 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC Business & Economy / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

It’s been a while since I have done an economic update, and as we head into the Fall, it seems a good time to look through the tea leaves to figure out where we are and what risks lie ahead between now and the New Year.

The graph at right, created by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, shows employment in the U.S. from 1940 to date. To the far right of the graph, you can see the huge dip in employment in the Spring of 2020, as the pandemic hit. Since then U.S. employment has recovered, but not yet completely.

Unemployment Back to Normal Levels & Stimulus Winding Down

Unemployment continues to decline, and the unemployment rate reflects a growing economy and a tight labor market. One debated theory about the tight labor market, is that it was fueled in part by some of the generous government spending programs, designed to cushion folks from the pandemic, which some believed kept workers out of the employment market. As of this posting, we’ve not seen any good study that proves or disproves that hypothesis. So for now, I recommend you consider that hearsay, at least until you or I find one or more reliable studies that proves or disproves that hypothesis.

In any event, a good measure of both the federal and states stimulus programs have begun to wind down. Beginning in late Spring / early Summer, both states and the federal government began reducing or withdrawing the funding for extra [federal] and extended [states] unemployment benefits.

• CLICK here to read our multi-part series with a snapshot of the U.S. economy in the third quarter of 2021 Q3 2021 Economic Snapshot NYC.

1613

Things To Do & News Updates NYC

Event, Arts & Entertainment Venues to Reopen 4/2, NYC Movie Theaters Reopen Today, Small Business Funding, CoVid Testing & Vaccines Update, Eviction Moratoriums Tentatively set to Expire & the 'Real Economy & Employment' Picture

March 5, 2021 / NYC Neighborhoods / Things To Do NYC / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Weather. No precipitation is in the forecast. The temperature highs will be around 40 and the temperature lows will be in the high 20's throughout the weekend. On Friday the humidity will rise from about 30% to between 40% - 50%, where it will remain for the rest of the weekend. Winds will be 10 - 15 mph on Friday, falling to 7 - 12 mph the rest of the weekend.

Things To Do - Event, Arts & Entertainment Venues Can Reopen at 33% Capacity April 2nd, Movie Theaters Reopen Today 3/5/21, Many Restaurants Now Open til 11 pm & Who's in Charge?

McGolrick Park farmers market in the Greenpoint neighborhood of Brooklyn opens on Sunday, March 7th from 10 am - 3 pm.

On Wednesday, March 3, 2021 Governor Cuomo announced that effective April 2nd, 2021 the Events, Arts & Entertainment venues can reopen at 33% capacity. He also said that effective March 22nd, 1) residential outdoor gatherings could include up to 25 people, while 2) non-residential outdoor gatherings could include up to 200 people, while non-residential indoor gatherings would be limited to 100 people.

Some NYC movie theaters reopen today. They will open at 10% capacity or a limit of 50 people per screen and at this time will not be offering concessions as we knew them [generally you have to order concessions via an app]. As of this post the Angelika, IFC, The Village East, and AMC theaters in Manhattan and NiteHawk Cinema in Brooklyn have made announcements that they will be open today. More than half of all movie theaters have not yet announced their reopening plans including many in Brooklyn, Bronx, Staten Island and Queens.

On February 12th, when NYC restaurants reopened indoor dining, Governor Cuomo extended their opening hours to 11 pm. Since then most restaurants have taken opportunity of the longer hours to accommodate diners.

Who's in Charge? It's worth noting that a number of people I have conversed with - were under the impression that restaurant closures were being managed by the Mayor - but this is not true. Since the pandemic began, Governor Cuomo was granted emergency powers by the NYS Legislature, and Cuomo has been managing most of the healthcare restrictions, including restaurant closure times, as well as all of the other closures and reopenings. If I'm not mistaken, under ordinary circumstances the opening and closing times would be managed at the municipal level [meaning normally it's the Mayor's call but during the emergency CoVid pandemic it was the Governor's call].

• CLICK here to read the rest of our report about the gradual NYC / NYS reopening of the economy near the end of the CoVid pandemic, including vaccine distribution, eviction moratorium, unemployment and the economy.

1595

The Last Week of 2020 ... Hooray

A Very Turbulent Year Comes to a Close, Out of the Ashes Rises the Phoenix

CoVid Impact on Real Estate, Restaurants, Hospitality & Travel

December 28, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Weather. The temperature highs will be Monday, Thursday and Friday, and just below 40 on Tuesday and Wednesday. The temperature lows will be will be in the low 30's on Monday and Tuesday, in the high 20's on Wednesday and in the high 30's on Thursday and Friday. A quarter inch of rain is expected Thursday, New Years Eve and a full inch of rain on Friday, New Years Day. Winds will be 5 - 10 mph all days except Tuesday, when the winds will pick up to between 10 - 15 mph. Humidity will range from 45% - 65% in the earlier part of the week, rising to between 70% - 80% for New Years Eve and New Years Day.

The photo at right shows the Kwanzaa candles at City Hall which Mayor de Blasio erected in recognition of this fairly recent [1960's] African American holiday. The holiday runs from Saturday, December 26th to New Years Day 2021.

Last Week of December 2020 Events - Mulchfest & Photo Exhibit Ending

The MMiXX d-up photo exhibit at Lety Bakery & Cafe at 77-07 37th Avenue in Jackson Heights ends Thursday evening.

NYC Parks returns with its Mulchfest program to recycle trees between now and January 9th. See the Parks Department website for times / dates / locations - https://www.nycgovparks.org/highlights/festivals/mulchfest.

There are about 400 million Christmas trees in the U.S., of which about 10% are harvested annually.

• CLICK here to read the rest of our report on the economic impact of CoVid on NYC retail, travel, real estate and hospitality and restaurants.

1552

Weekend Wondering NYC

NYS Eviction Moratorium Extension, is Unemployment Rate 10% or 20% & Other News

August 7, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC CoVid 19 Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Rent Moratorium Extension

Well this is good news for far more people than for who it will be bad news. Governor Cuomo has extended the eviction moratorium in NYS for another month [technically until September 4, 2020], and possibly longer, as he seeks to give those who are rent challenged in the midst of this pandemic, an opportunity to turn things around or find other housing.

Mayor de Blasio had simultaneously stepped in to help those facing eviction, telling New Yorkers to call 311 for help from an attorney funded by NYC. There are reportedly 14,000 NYC evictions pending with the City Marshall.

Nationally, the Republicans can't seem to agree on a follow on the terms of the next stimulus bill, which would include extending the eviction moratorium nationally. So it seems - like the handling of the Corona Virus itself - the Governors of each state will have to make their own rent moratorium decisions.

Many NYC Restaurateurs are also Rent Challenged

An August 3, 2020 report in Eater New York informs us that the NYC Hospitality Alliance did a survey of 471 bars / restaurants and found that 83% weren't able to make the full rent, and that included a whopping 37% weren't able to pay any rent. The silver lining in the report was that for 30% of them, their landlords didn't require full rent, and in many cases giving them a temporary 50% off price. The curbside / street dining program implemented by the Mayor seems to be helping, as I see a fair amount of business being done daily, in spite of the weather.

Total Unemployed and the Unemployment Rates

In another Trump first, GDP broke all historic records in the second quarter, sinking 9.5% [at an annual rate of 33%], beating George W. Bush's record in the fourth quarter of 2008, during the financial meltdown.

Jobless claims continued to come in at over a million plus this week [1.18 million], continuing to set records for the longest string of million plus unemploymenbt claims since the end of March / beginning of April of this year, when the pandemic began impacting the economy. The silver lining in this news is that it is the lowest number of new unemployment claims, since mid March.

On June 15th I pointed to the discrepancy between the unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [around 12% - 13%] and the headlines / news reports of some 30 million plus unemployment claims, which would put the unemployment rate at closer to 19%. An August 6, 2020 report by CNBC did the best job of clearing up why there's such a huge discrepancy between the reported unemployment claims of 32 million which translates into an unemployment rate of 20%, and the lower figure that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting of about 10 - 12%. The CNBC report stated the following,

"... The four-week moving average, which smooths volatility in the numbers, fell by 413,250 to 16.6 million. But the damage to the labor remains deep and this was the 20th consecutive week that claims have run above 1 million. The total of those claiming benefits, which lags the current data by two weeks, rose to 32.1 million as of July 18, an increase of 1.3 million from the previous week... "

The ADP payroll report was up 167,000 jobs in July, way below the 4.3 million gains made in June.

• CLICK here for a report on the Economic Impact of CoVid on NYC and NYS in August 2020.

1551

The Evolution of an Interesting Year

Interesting Doesn't Connote Good or Bad, but Rather One About which the Grandkids will Inquire

July 28, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC CoVid 19 Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

The CoVid pandemic for most of us began just over four months ago in mid March. In the early stages the Governor and Mayor seemed a bit alarmist, but as events unfolded, they began to appear wise.

New York City is one of the world's great cities and thus one of the great global gathering places. So it's not surprising that NYC was one of the first American cities hit, and because of the city population density, we were hit hard.

The photo at right shows a few guys relaxing at the end of the day in Greenpoint Brooklyn.

But here we are four months out and - knock on wood - we seem to be operating at one of the higher functional levels, vis a vis other states and other nations. But as both the Mayor and Governor caution us - the pandemic is still alive and well and still being transmitted - and not likely to depart anytime soon. It will remain a threat for some time, for the same reasons it first arrived here, which is that we are a national and global destination / gathering place. And so we must continue to manage the viral threat by continuing to take the same precautionary steps we did to flatten the curve and beat the virus back.

George Floyd Protests, the Police, CoVid & the Economy

The year was further discombobulated by the death of George Floyd in the hands of the Minneapolis Police. The video of what could be a murder, went viral and caused a national outrage at the use of excessive force in a situation that didn’t appear to necessitate it. A single incident of this nature likely wouldn’t have caused a national outrage on its own. But because Floyd's untimely death seems to reflect a pattern of use of excessive force by individual policemen [repeated many times over the past couple of decades, in multiple locales, and captured and disseminated on video] that the death of George Floyd was the spark that ignited what seems to be national outrage at this sort of abuse of power by individual members of police forces around the nation.

The good news is that the demonstrations were generally peaceful, in recognition that it’s not the police departments per se, but rather bad actors within the police departments around the nation - who time and again seem to be protected by the police unions. Many of the policemen involved in these sorts of incidents, are reported to have histories of repeated failures to perform their fiduciary responsibilities in a proper manner, and yet are kept on the police force. This makes it possible for these bad actors to become repeat offenders.

The photo at right was taken of the protesters encamped outside of City Hall earlier this month, not long before the Mayor moved them out.

So I keep asking myself where are we now?

We’re in the midst of a raging pandemic, with social unrest vis a vis law enforcement, and then the Donald seems to exacerbate the situation by deploying the Department of Homeland Security to Portland, Oregon in what seems an effort to provoke protesters, not de-escalate the situation. The Donald has been accused of trying to inflame the situation in an effort to land bigger headlines and create the perception - with the help of mass media manipulator Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News, Wall St Journal and NY Post - that the world is on fire and America needs an authoritarian strong man who will use decisive force to quell the masses.

Trump has also been accused of attempting to use the DHS deployment to Portland as a distraction from the Administration’s failed response to the pandemic, his failure to respond to reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has paid bounties for the heads of U.S. G.I's in Afghanistan and a rallying cry to get the Donald (aka Rupert Murdoch’s choice) re-elected in November - in spite of what can only be described as the Administration's horrific record of dysfunctionality over the past four years.

The photo at right is a mural on the Richard Rodgers Theater near Times Square in Midtown Manhattan.

What Trump Administration dysfunctionality am I talking about? In addition to the colossal failed response to the CoVid pandemic, there's a near record of unemployment which the BLS appears to be consistently understating (the BLS says 12% unemployment, but that doesn’t jibe with the fact that some 30 million are collecting unemployment insurance out of a labor force of 160 million aka 19% unemployment), America’s worst deficit ever by a country mile [in the month of June alone Trump racked up an $864 BILLION federal deficit], failure to effect any meaningful healthcare reform, stagnating or worsening reading and math scores by America's students, the alienation of our closest trading and military allies, and the list could go on. Those are the failures of the Trump Administration and unfortunately for both Trump and America there’s little to offset their failures with any meaningful accomplishments.

But despite these enormous failures at the federal level, life does go on. Thanks in part to the leadership of local government officials.

• CLICK here for NYC Economic Reopening into Phase IV During CoVid Pandemic & CoVid Science Update in July 2020.

1544

Week & Weekend Update of Events in NYC

Planned Openings & Fireworks, Phase II & III Economic Reopening,  Life in the City & Primary Election Results Remain Open Due to Large Mail in Vote

June 26, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / NYC CoVid 19 Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

On Monday NYC entered Phase II of the economic reopening, which among other things included curbside restaurant service, limited office openings and limited capacity retail. That put a lot of people back to work and seemed to give the city more of a normal feel. The Mayor quipped that it was the first time in a while that he got caught in a traffic jam.

NYC Plans Move to Phase III on 7/6/20

Assuming New Yorkers maintain their CoVid protocol vigilance, we’ll be moving to Phase III on Monday, July 6th. This includes the reopening of Personal Care services such as nail salons, gyms, as well as limited capacity in restaurant dining.

A Word of Caution - CoVid Resurgences in Reopened States

But it's worth making a note of caution, as other states - such as Texas, Florida, California and Arizona which beat us to the punch in reopening their economies - have sparked a huge resurgence of new CoVid infections. Texas, Florida and Arizona have put their economic re-openings on hold. Florida beat its previous high rate of CoVid infections on Thursday, nearly reaching 9,000 new infections in a single day. And an increasing share [about half] of these infections have been found in people between the ages of 25 - 45.

• CLICK here to read the rest of our report on the NYC Phase II & III, planned reopenings, Macy's July 4th fireworks 2020, cancellations & NYS Primary Election.

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CoVid Vaccine Update, Gauging Timeline for Return to the New Normal, Economic Snapshot & ...

May 25, 2020 / NYC Neighborhoods / CoVid in NYC Special Section / News Analysis & Opinion / Gotham Buzz NYC.

Memorial Day was a beautiful sunny day, with temperatures into the 70's, and dry. Given the month of May is nearly over, I thought I'd do a recap of what has transpired during the month to gauge how far we've come and how far we have to go to return to the new normal.

Let's start with a quick update on the CoVid virus itself. As we entered the month of May, new CoVid hospitalizations were running about 800 per day. As of Governor Cuomo's last few reports, the number of new hospitalizations is running at between 200 - 300 per day. The net daily intubations have been running negative [meaning more people coming off than going on] for most of the last couple of months ranging from close to zero [meaning folks coming off intubations were about equal to those going on] to nearly 150 more coming off than going on.

As we exited April, NYC and NYS were closing the popup hospitals located primarily around the city, as the existing facilities were moving into a position where they were able to handle the sick patients entering the healthcare system. Overall both NYC and NYS have freed up a considerable amount of hospital and respirator capacity, so that most parts of the state will be economically open in the Phase I stage by this coming week - with the exception being NYC. NYC has met six of the seven metrics required to enter Phase I of the reopening of the economy. The seventh metric is to free up enough hospital capacity [30% available capacity is the target] in order to reopen safely, according to the guidelines outlined by NYS Governor Cuomo.

It's important to remind folks that NYC, with a population of about 8.5 million, represents nearly half of the approximately 19.5 million population of NYS - and that we're far more densely packed into a far smaller space than likely anywhere else in the nation. I mention this to help folks understand that we, in NYC, have the highest hurdle to transcend to move toward the new normal. But that said both the Mayor and the Governor believe that if the trends continue, NYC should be in a position to move into Phase I sometime within the first two weeks of June.

Phase I allows for construction, manufacturing and curbside retail to resume.

In prior reports we've identified the people most at risk of dying from the disease should they contract it. These folks still need to tread cautiously, as well as the folks who surround them, as no cure is in sight - regardless of what you may hear on the ratings-driven TV news or from a flailing president who oftentimes seems more concerned about the impact of the virus on his re-election chances, than on Americans' health.

Scientists and pharmaceutical organizations around the world on working on numerous different therapies which may help speed recoveries. There are eight new vaccines that are in some stage of clinical trials, and a reported 110 vaccines in the works. The eight in clinical trials are only in the early stages of clinical trials, which are used to determine the efficacy and safety profile of a drug.

• CLICK here to read the rest of our report on CoVid Vaccine Update, Timeline to Return to Work & Economy NYC & NYS.

NY Real Estate Expo

NYC Professionals Discuss Manhattan & NYC Metro Real Estate

April 23, 2018 / NYC Neighborhoods / Manhattan Real Estate NYC / Gotham Buzz NYC.

I attended the 10th annual NY Real Estate Expo at the New York Hilton last week. The event was well attended by hundreds of real estate, development and financial professionals from the NYC and metro area. Anthony Kazazis, Director of the event, had organized a series of panels to discuss key aspects affecting the real estate market ranging from software platforms, to financing, to NYC real estate market assessments.

Generally the mood was upbeat, but not without some concern about the future, given changes in the tax laws, foreign interest in NYC investment, interest rates forecasts and technological challenges facing the industry. But, I thought, that is why everyone is here. To find out what's going on so they can navigate the market changes - rather than be surprised by them.

While I had intended to stay only a short while, I found the topics and panelists too interesting to leave, so I stayed most of the day. I started with a discussion of a new information technology platform called Blockchain, which is intended to serve as an information clearing house, and it includes some artificial intelligence capability. I then found my way into a discussion about New York City versus Silicon Valley with respect to attracting large technology companies like Amazon, Facebook and Google. And I ended my visit after listening in on a discussion by NYC and metro area realtors discuss the residential real estate market in Manhattan and outer boroughs.

Sound like an interesting NYC real estate conference? It was. In the photo above you can see the audience at the well attended panel discussions at the NY Real Estate Expo this year.

I'll have more on this later in the week.

Update: LaGuardia Airport Development Project

First Phase Moving Along with Second & Third Phases About to Begin

April 24, 2017 / Astoria Neighborhood / Queens Real Estate / Gotham Buzz NYC.

I attended a Community Board One meeting at the Astoria World Manor on Wednesday, April 19th. People representing the LaGuardia Airport development project were scheduled to provide the community with an update regarding several of the multi-billion dollar renovation projects associated with LaGuardia Airport, that are either currently in the works or nearing the end of the planning process.

The presentation was split into three parts: 1) LaGuardia Airport development project construction updates, 2) traffic mitigation efforts and 3) community outreach including job opportunities related to the projects.

Click here to read our report on the LaGuardia Airport development project & expansion, related job opportunities, its possible impact on travel times to the airport and the public hearing details on May 3rd, 2017 in Flushing. We have also included a small bit of history about the airport and the fight over the property and development in Flushing Meadows Corona Park. The graphic at right was created as part of the LaGuardia Airport development project.

1324

Superscraper Forum

CCM Ben Kallos Hosts Superscraper Zoning Forum

July 23, 2015 / Manhattan / NYC Real Estate / Gotham Buzz NYC.

I attended a 'Superscraper Forum' hosted by NYC Councilmember Ben Kallos of the Upper East Side neighborhood on a comfortable Thursday evening at the Lenox Hill Neighborhood House. It was to begin at 6.30 pm and 250 people had reserved seats for an auditorium that held 140 seats and had space for about 40 standing.

To be sure the auditorium was full when I arrived and I caught only the tail end of what the first speaker had to say. There were over a half dozen speakers, including NYC Councilmember Ben Kallos who organized the meeting which was attended by Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer who arrived near the end of it.

The other speakers included the first speaker who was from the NYC Department of Housing & Planning, who I missed, as well as the following: Emma Marconi Bologna of Civitas NYC, Tara Kelly of the Friends of the Upper East Side, Margaret Newman of the Municipal Art Society, and three other people whose names and associations I did not catch. One may have been an architect, one may have been a representative of the East 50's Association which is a group dedicated to reining in Superscrapers, and there might have been one from the Sutton Area Community neighborhood association.

Click here to read the rest of our report about NYC Zoning Laws: Superscraper Zoning for the Upper East Side & Sutton Place.

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Sterling Equities & Related Companies Lose A Court Battle

Plans to Build Shopping Mall on Flushing Meadows Corona Park Land Reversed on Appeal, but Legal Wrangling will Continue

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